FAIRFIELD, Conn. -- When Maurice Johnson was laid off a year ago from his six-figure salary as a managing director at GE Capital, it wasn't his future he was worried about.
It was his children's.
The family income of the Johnsons is a fifth of what it used to be. And the children are about to feel the pain. Mr. Johnson's two oldest are attending his alma mater, Johns Hopkins University, at an annual cost of $50,000 apiece. And his youngest daughter, 15 years old, recently began her own college search. Mr. Johnson isn't sure whether he'll be able to help her to go to college, or even to get the older kids to graduation.
Mr. Johnson, who watched his own father struggle as an engineer without a college degree, was determined to do better for his own children.
"We saved like crazy from the minute they were born," he says. "Then, it all fell to pieces."
Many families such as the Johnsons -- upper-middle-class professionals -- are suddenly downwardly mobile. For years, they used rising family wealth to help foot the bill for college, down payments for houses and start-up cash for children's careers. But pay cuts, layoffs and the decade-long flatlining of the stock market mean many families can no longer help their children.
This comes as young adults could use a financial helping hand more than ever. The unemployment rate for workers ages 16 to 29 was 15.2% in March, the highest rate since 1948, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"It's almost a double whammy," says Ann Huff Stevens, an economics professor at the University of California at Davis. "If a parent goes through a job loss, they're going to contribute less. And there's a direct effect because kids themselves are earning less, too. A recession like this might have some lasting effects for parents and kids."
In general, highly trained and educated workers are faring better than those without degrees in this labor market. The unemployment rate for college graduates is 5%, compared with 9.7% overall. In general, the employment picture is improving, with employers adding 162,000 jobs in March, the biggest monthly gain in three years.
Even so, the average length of unemployment, 31 weeks, is at its highest level since 1948. There were a total of 2.3 million unemployed college graduates in March 2010, 1.45 million more than in March 2007, with heavy layoffs in white-collar sectors such as finance.
In the long run, the drop in parental aid could make young adults a more financially resilient generation, like children of the Great Depression. But for now, economists worry that without parental cash, young adults may put off entering the housing market, settling into career paths and having families.
"Now, not only do parents no longer have the money to help their children out, but banks will no longer lend to home buyers without the income to support repayment," says Cheryl Russell, a demographer and author of "Americans and Their Homes: Demographics of Homeownership."
The rate of home ownership among people ages 25 to 29 fell to 37.7% last year, from a peak of 42% in 2006, according to the U.S. Census. Home ownership for those under 25 fell to 23.3% from 26% in 2005, the lowest rate for any age group.
Indeed, the bank of Mom and Dad is closing at a time when young people are having trouble borrowing from traditional lenders. Some 22% of young people between the ages of 18 and 34 said they've been turned down for a mortgage, loan or credit card in the past year, according to a February survey from FindLaw.com, a legal marketing and information site. That's double the percentage of any other age group in its survey.
As a result, many young people are now moving home to save on rent. About 21% of young adults say they've either moved in with a friend or relative, or had a friend or relative move in with them because of the economy, according to a study from the Pew Research Center.
In past recessions, women would re-enter the work force to help prop up household income, says Katherine Newman, a Princeton University sociology professor. But now, more women are working and themselves experiencing layoffs. Before the 1990 recession, 57.4% of American women worked, and in the next two years, some 1.1 million more entered the work force. Today, it's the reverse. On the eve of the latest downturn in 2007, 59.3% were working and 2.6 million more women were unemployed. Women's overall participation rate in the work force has remained flat since then.
Many parents who were set to retire are now delaying it to compensate for battered retirement accounts, leaving even fewer openings for younger workers to fill. There are an additional 500,000 workers over the age of 65 in the work force now compared with 2007.
"We may have well given up on the idea that our kids will do better than us," Prof. Newman says. "But the idea that they should do as well, that's something we haven't given up on yet."
Before her December 2008 layoff from Bank of America Corp. as an executive recruiter, Diane Hayes bought a "dream house" for her family, which includes her three teenage daughters with disabilities, two with autism and one with Down syndrome. The 3,600-square-foot house in Orlando, Fla., had a pool in back that could be used for therapy and custom-designed rooms to accommodate five people into adulthood. "The pool was the only place we could all be together and enjoy ourselves," Mrs. Hayes says.
Her husband continues working as a writer, but without her six-figureincome, the family was forced to sell the home in November. The Hayes had a $650,000 mortgage and sold the house for $375,000. Their lender forgave the difference as part of the sale, Mrs. Hayes said. But the family still has loans outstanding for $50,000.
They've since moved to a 1,200-square-foot, two-bedroom house nearby that they are renting for $1,200 a month. All three girls share one bedroom with bunk beds. The house is in the same neighborhood,so the family can use the same supermarkets and schools, hoping to ease the anxiety many autistic children face when adjusting to new environments.
The family had to cut the four different specialized summer camps that each child attended, at a cost of $1,600 for all three children per week. And they've been forced to eat into a nest egg designed to support the girls as adults.
"With kids with disabilities, there's no cheap way out," Mrs. Hayes says.She adds: "Other people can send their kids to community college, have them get part-time jobs, and think 'maybe our son or daughter will support us'…We can't do that."
Last month, Mrs. Hayes found some temporary work as a recruiter. The income is lower than her Bank of America salary, there are no benefits and her brother has helped pitch in with day care. She says she's grateful for the opportunity, but knows it could be precarious. "We're not going to spend on anything," she says.
In other families, the gaps in financial support have become glaring between siblings. Ten years ago, when Patricia Bennett earned more than $100,000 a year selling risk-management software on Wall Street, she paid $30,000 cash for her now 28-year-old son's freshman year at Morehouse College in Atlanta with little hassle.
After being laid off in April 2009, Ms. Bennett now makes $9.75 an hour as a part-time cashier at Williams-Sonoma, in addition to doing volunteer hospice care. In January, she received a foreclosure notice on her home in Monroe, N.Y. Her youngest son is a sophomore at Lafayette College and will have to drop out next year unless he obtains more scholarships and loans.
Last year, Lafayette increased financial aid by 8.5% and cut its operating budget by 5% to keep pace with the increase in financial-aid requests and prevent students from leaving for financial reasons "There's concern about reality today and what's ahead," says Robert Massa, Lafayette's vice president of communications.
Ms. Bennett's husband, William, was unemployed as a salesman for two years before he started selling cars on commission in July of 2009. Before they became eligible for health insurance with his new job, the family went without it for months at a time so that they could contribute around $1,000 for pocket money and bus tickets for their son to visit home.
The gap between their two sons' experiences is particularly frustrating for her. "It's a bitter pill to swallow," Ms. Bennett says.
Many parents are less able to help their children after graduation as well. Angelica Hoyos, a 26-year-old living in Los Angeles, has put her photography and sculpture career on hold since her parents pulled the financial plug earlier this year after the family's granite-countertop business suffered. Ms. Hoyos has moved in with her boyfriend, cut spending and earns about $1,000 a month doing free-lance design work and baby-sitting.
"My artistic career is put on the side because I have to make a living," she says.
For Mr. Johnson, the former GE Capital executive, not being able to see his children through college is particularly painful. Both he and his wife attended Johns Hopkins in Baltimore. When he decided to earn his masters in finance there decades ago, he says he had little doubt about it being "a good value proposition."
The Johnson children always had part-time jobs in high school. But in college, they struggled for months to find part-time and summer work over the past two years. Finally, one landed a seasonal job folding clothes at Old Navy. Last year, the Johnsons didn't qualify for work study because the household income was too high. Since resubmitting their aid application, they have qualified. Their son got a work-study gig at a university office.
Johns Hopkins last year added $2 million in financial aid just to accommodate the surge of additional aid requests for its 5,000 undergrads.Some 61% of higher-education institutions reported an increase of 10% or more in financial-aid applications than the previous year, according to a September 2009 survey from the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators. More than a million more federal financial-aid applications were filed during the beginning of 2009 than in the beginning of 2008, with a 16.3% increase among dependent students.
"We had folks who never needed aid before and now they have one, two parents unemployed," says Vincent Amoroso, the school's director of student financial services. "And these are folks who used to make $100,000 or $200,000 a year who are coming to see us."
Mr. Johnson made up to $550,000 a year, including bonuses, before losing his job in March 2009.The Johnsons had stashed $250,000 away for college.
If that money isn't tapped sooner for household expenses, it might buy two years of schooling for each of his children, Mr. Johnson calculates. Further expenses such as first homes and weddings are out of the question. "They're going to have to elope," he says.
In the summer of 2007, the Johnsons paid $1.5 million for their Fairfield home and took out a mortgage of $852,000. Mr. Johnson figures it could realistically sell for $800,000 today. Given the numbers, the family is trying to avoid moving and recently refinanced their house at a lower interest rate.
"It's emasculating,"Mr. Johnson says. "I'm supposed to be providing for them, but I can't."
The children haven't talked about transferring to less expensive colleges yet. "I'm going to take it all day by day," says Kristian Johnson, 20, the oldest of the Johnson siblings. Now a sophomore, he says he's prepared to take out loans to finish.
Margot Johnson, 18, says her father's career experience has affected her goal as an economics major. "I want to study economics," she says, "but not something in the corporate world."
Mr. Johnson concedes that Elsa Johnson, the youngest, is "getting the raw end of the deal." By the time the 15-year-old daughter starts looking at colleges, most of the savings set aside for school could be gone.
Already passionate about fashion and design, Elsa says she'll opt for the least-expensive design school she can get into and is looking into paying for school herself. Until then, she's cut back on shopping trips and food and coffee spending with friends. She no longer asks for weekly allowances. "My parents are already stressed out enough," she says.
Meanwhile, Mr. Johnson continues to look for work and crunch numbers of the new household-budget reality.
"I know, I know--cry me a river and then build a bridge and get over it, right?" Mr. Johnson says. "Still, there was a set of expectations we established, consciously or not, and they are not being met any more."
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
The $555,000 Student-Loan Burden
When Michelle Bisutti, a 41-year-old family practitioner in Columbus, Ohio, finished medical school in 2003, her student-loan debt amounted to roughly $250,000. Since then, it has ballooned to $555,000.
It is the result of her deferring loan payments while she completed her residency, default charges and relentlessly compounding interest rates. Among the charges: a single $53,870 fee for when her loan was turned over to a collection agency.
"Maybe half of it was my fault because I didn't look at the fine print," Dr. Bisutti says. "But this is just outrageous now."
To be sure, Dr. Bisutti's case is extreme, and lenders say student-loan terms are clear and that they try to work with borrowers who get in trouble.
But as tuitions rise, many people are borrowing heavily to pay their bills. Some no doubt view it as "good debt," because an education can lead to a higher salary. But in practice, student loans are one of the most toxic debts, requiring extreme consumer caution and, as Dr. Bisutti learned, responsibility.
Unlike other kinds of debt, student loans can be particularly hard to wriggle out of. Homeowners who can't make their mortgage payments can hand over the keys to their house to their lender. Credit-card and even gambling debts can be discharged in bankruptcy. But ditching a student loan is virtually impossible, especially once a collection agency gets involved. Although lenders may trim payments, getting fees or principals waived seldom happens
Yet many former students are trying. There is an estimated $730 billion in outstanding federal and private student-loan debt, says Mark Kantrowitz of FinAid.org, a Web site that tracks financial-aid issues -- and only 40% of that debt is actively being repaid. The rest is in default, or in deferment, which means that payments and interest are halted, or in "forbearance," which means payments are halted while interest accrues.
Although Dr. Bisutti's debt load is unusual, her experience having problems repaying isn't. Emmanuel Tellez's mother is a laid-off factory worker, and $120 from her $300 unemployment checks is garnished to pay the federal PLUS student loan she took out for her son.
By the time Mr. Tellez graduated in 2008, he had $50,000 of his own debt in loans issued by SLM Corp., known as Sallie Mae, the largest private student lender. In December, he was laid off from his $29,000-a-year job in Boston and defaulted. Mr. Tellez says that when he signed up, the loan wasn't explained to him well, though he concedes he missed the fine print.
Loan terms, including interest rates, are disclosed "multiple times and in multiple ways," says Martha Holler, a spokeswoman for Sallie Mae, who says the company can't comment on individual accounts. Repayment tools and account information are accessible on Sallie Mae's Web site as well, she says.
Many borrowers say they are experiencing difficulties working out repayment and modification terms on their loans. Ms. Holler says that Sallie Mae works with borrowers individually to revamp loans. Although the U.S. Department of Education has expanded programs like income-based repayment, which effectively caps repayments for some borrowers, others might not qualify.
Heather Ehmke of Oakland, Calif., renegotiated the terms of her subprime mortgage after her home was foreclosed. But even after filing for bankruptcy, she says she couldn't get Sallie Mae, one of her lenders, to adjust the terms on her student loan. After 14 years with patches of deferment and forbearance, the loan has increased from $28,000 to more than $90,000. Her monthly payments jumped from $230 to $816. Last month, her petition for undue hardship on the loans was dismissed.
Sallie Mae supports reforms that would allow student loans to be dischargeable in bankruptcy for those who have made a good-faith effort to repay them, says Ms. Holler.
Dr. Bisutti says she loves her work, but regrets taking out so many student loans. She admits that she made mistakes in missing payments, deferring her loans and not being completely thorough with some of the paperwork, but was surprised at how quickly the debt spiraled.
She says she knew when she started medical school in 1999 that she would have to borrow heavily. But she reasoned that her future income as a doctor would make paying off the loans easy. While in school, her loans racked up interest with variable rates ranging from 3% to 11%.
She maxed out on federal loans, borrowing $152,000 over four years, and sought private loans from Sallie Mae to help make up the difference. She also took out two loans from Wells Fargo & Co. for $20,000 each. Each had a $2,000 origination fee. The total amount she borrowed at the time: $250,000.
In 2005, the bill for the Wells Fargo loans came due. Representatives from the bank called her father, Michael Bisutti, every day for two months demanding payment. Mr. Bisutti, who had co-signed on the loans, finally decided to cover the $550 monthly payments for a year.
Wells Fargo says it will stop calling consumers if they request it, says senior vice president Glen Herrick, who adds that the bank no longer imposes origination fees on its private loans.
Sallie Mae, meanwhile, called Mr. Bisutti's neighbor. The neighbor told Mr. Bisutti about the call. "Now they know [my dad's] daughter the doctor defaulted on her loans," Dr. Bisutti says.
Ms. Holler, the Sallie Mae spokeswoman, says that the company may contact a neighbor to verify an individual's address. But in those cases, she says, the details of the debt obligation aren't discussed.
Dr. Bisutti declined to authorize Sallie Mae to comment specifically on her case. "The overwhelming majority of medical-school graduates successfully repay their student loans," Ms. Holler says.
After completing her fellowship in 2007, Dr. Bisutti juggled other debts, including her credit-card balance, and was having trouble making her $1,000-a-month student-loan payments. That year, she defaulted on both her federal and private loans. That is when the "collection cost" fee of $53,870 was added on to her private loan.
Meanwhile, the variable interest rates continue to compound on her balance and fees. She recently applied for income-based repayment, but she still isn't sure if she will qualify. She makes $550-a-month payments to Wells Fargo for the two loans she hasn't defaulted on. By the time she is done, she will have paid the bank $128,000 -- over three times the $36,000 she received.
She recently entered a rehabilitation agreement on her defaulted federal loans, which now carry an additional $31,942 collection cost. She makes monthly payments on those loans -- now $209,399 -- for $990 a month, with only $100 of it going toward her original balance. The entire balance of her federal loans will be paid off in 351 months. Dr. Bisutti will be 70 years old.
The debt load keeps her up at night. Her damaged credit has prevented her from buying a home or a new car. She says she and her boyfriend of three years have put off marriage and having children because of the debt.
Dr. Bisutti told her 17-year-old niece the story of her debt as a cautionary tale "so the next generation of kids who want to get a higher education knows what they're getting into," she says. "I will likely have to deal with this debt for the rest of my life."
It is the result of her deferring loan payments while she completed her residency, default charges and relentlessly compounding interest rates. Among the charges: a single $53,870 fee for when her loan was turned over to a collection agency.
"Maybe half of it was my fault because I didn't look at the fine print," Dr. Bisutti says. "But this is just outrageous now."
To be sure, Dr. Bisutti's case is extreme, and lenders say student-loan terms are clear and that they try to work with borrowers who get in trouble.
But as tuitions rise, many people are borrowing heavily to pay their bills. Some no doubt view it as "good debt," because an education can lead to a higher salary. But in practice, student loans are one of the most toxic debts, requiring extreme consumer caution and, as Dr. Bisutti learned, responsibility.
Unlike other kinds of debt, student loans can be particularly hard to wriggle out of. Homeowners who can't make their mortgage payments can hand over the keys to their house to their lender. Credit-card and even gambling debts can be discharged in bankruptcy. But ditching a student loan is virtually impossible, especially once a collection agency gets involved. Although lenders may trim payments, getting fees or principals waived seldom happens
Yet many former students are trying. There is an estimated $730 billion in outstanding federal and private student-loan debt, says Mark Kantrowitz of FinAid.org, a Web site that tracks financial-aid issues -- and only 40% of that debt is actively being repaid. The rest is in default, or in deferment, which means that payments and interest are halted, or in "forbearance," which means payments are halted while interest accrues.
Although Dr. Bisutti's debt load is unusual, her experience having problems repaying isn't. Emmanuel Tellez's mother is a laid-off factory worker, and $120 from her $300 unemployment checks is garnished to pay the federal PLUS student loan she took out for her son.
By the time Mr. Tellez graduated in 2008, he had $50,000 of his own debt in loans issued by SLM Corp., known as Sallie Mae, the largest private student lender. In December, he was laid off from his $29,000-a-year job in Boston and defaulted. Mr. Tellez says that when he signed up, the loan wasn't explained to him well, though he concedes he missed the fine print.
Loan terms, including interest rates, are disclosed "multiple times and in multiple ways," says Martha Holler, a spokeswoman for Sallie Mae, who says the company can't comment on individual accounts. Repayment tools and account information are accessible on Sallie Mae's Web site as well, she says.
Many borrowers say they are experiencing difficulties working out repayment and modification terms on their loans. Ms. Holler says that Sallie Mae works with borrowers individually to revamp loans. Although the U.S. Department of Education has expanded programs like income-based repayment, which effectively caps repayments for some borrowers, others might not qualify.
Heather Ehmke of Oakland, Calif., renegotiated the terms of her subprime mortgage after her home was foreclosed. But even after filing for bankruptcy, she says she couldn't get Sallie Mae, one of her lenders, to adjust the terms on her student loan. After 14 years with patches of deferment and forbearance, the loan has increased from $28,000 to more than $90,000. Her monthly payments jumped from $230 to $816. Last month, her petition for undue hardship on the loans was dismissed.
Sallie Mae supports reforms that would allow student loans to be dischargeable in bankruptcy for those who have made a good-faith effort to repay them, says Ms. Holler.
Dr. Bisutti says she loves her work, but regrets taking out so many student loans. She admits that she made mistakes in missing payments, deferring her loans and not being completely thorough with some of the paperwork, but was surprised at how quickly the debt spiraled.
She says she knew when she started medical school in 1999 that she would have to borrow heavily. But she reasoned that her future income as a doctor would make paying off the loans easy. While in school, her loans racked up interest with variable rates ranging from 3% to 11%.
She maxed out on federal loans, borrowing $152,000 over four years, and sought private loans from Sallie Mae to help make up the difference. She also took out two loans from Wells Fargo & Co. for $20,000 each. Each had a $2,000 origination fee. The total amount she borrowed at the time: $250,000.
In 2005, the bill for the Wells Fargo loans came due. Representatives from the bank called her father, Michael Bisutti, every day for two months demanding payment. Mr. Bisutti, who had co-signed on the loans, finally decided to cover the $550 monthly payments for a year.
Wells Fargo says it will stop calling consumers if they request it, says senior vice president Glen Herrick, who adds that the bank no longer imposes origination fees on its private loans.
Sallie Mae, meanwhile, called Mr. Bisutti's neighbor. The neighbor told Mr. Bisutti about the call. "Now they know [my dad's] daughter the doctor defaulted on her loans," Dr. Bisutti says.
Ms. Holler, the Sallie Mae spokeswoman, says that the company may contact a neighbor to verify an individual's address. But in those cases, she says, the details of the debt obligation aren't discussed.
Dr. Bisutti declined to authorize Sallie Mae to comment specifically on her case. "The overwhelming majority of medical-school graduates successfully repay their student loans," Ms. Holler says.
After completing her fellowship in 2007, Dr. Bisutti juggled other debts, including her credit-card balance, and was having trouble making her $1,000-a-month student-loan payments. That year, she defaulted on both her federal and private loans. That is when the "collection cost" fee of $53,870 was added on to her private loan.
Meanwhile, the variable interest rates continue to compound on her balance and fees. She recently applied for income-based repayment, but she still isn't sure if she will qualify. She makes $550-a-month payments to Wells Fargo for the two loans she hasn't defaulted on. By the time she is done, she will have paid the bank $128,000 -- over three times the $36,000 she received.
She recently entered a rehabilitation agreement on her defaulted federal loans, which now carry an additional $31,942 collection cost. She makes monthly payments on those loans -- now $209,399 -- for $990 a month, with only $100 of it going toward her original balance. The entire balance of her federal loans will be paid off in 351 months. Dr. Bisutti will be 70 years old.
The debt load keeps her up at night. Her damaged credit has prevented her from buying a home or a new car. She says she and her boyfriend of three years have put off marriage and having children because of the debt.
Dr. Bisutti told her 17-year-old niece the story of her debt as a cautionary tale "so the next generation of kids who want to get a higher education knows what they're getting into," she says. "I will likely have to deal with this debt for the rest of my life."
More Money for Struggling Homeowners
A new federal program is offering aid with a sweet kicker: It doesn't need to be repaid.
For the roughly four million homeowners who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments, the federal government is offering yet another remedy: free money to catch up on their loans.
The effort, called the Emergency Homeowners Loan Program, is the latest in the federal government's efforts to slow down the flood of foreclosures a necessary step to a meaningful recovery in the housing market, says a Department of Housing and Urban Development official. For people who have lost their jobs, the $1 billion program offers loans of up to $50,000 that don't actually need to be repaid, if applicants meet certain requirements.
The goal, says HUD, is to offer short-term aid to people who look like they'll be back on their feet soon. But critics say the loans may leave homeowners worse off in the long run. "This is a short run band-aid, a modest attempt to grapple with the severity of the situation," says Stuart Gabriel, director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Rolled out by HUD and the nonprofit housing advocacy group NeighborWorks America, the program is making loans with far better terms than anything on offer at a local bank. The loans are interest-free. Payments go directly to the lender for a portion of the borrower's monthly mortgage, including missed payments or past due charges. And when the assistance period -- which runs for up to two years -- ends, 20% of the loan is forgiven with each passing year. In other words, for qualified borrowers who stay in their home for at least five years after the assistance period and who don't fall behind on their mortgage again, this money doesn't have to be paid back.
But some critics say that's where help for consumers ends. By taking this loan, borrowers risk falling further into debt. If they sell their home before the entire loan is forgiven, they'll be on the hook for the remaining amount. The same holds true if they fall behind on their mortgage payments again: they'll need to repay the remaining balance of the loan when they sell or refinance their home. Separately, borrowers aren't required to have equity in their home to receive this money, so someone who has to repay this loan risks owing more on the home later than they do now. For homeowners who are significantly underwater now, the loan may only delay foreclosure, says Gabriel. While the limit each person will get is up to $50,000, loans will average about $35,000 per person, according to NeighborWorks America.
Others say the program doesn't go far enough. The loans will be made available to around 30,000 applicants -- "a drop in the bucket," says Stu Feldstein, president at SMR Research, a housing and mortgage research firm. It's helpful, he says, but it won't be enough to seriously boost the ailing housing market. Roughly 4 to 4.5 million borrowers are behind on their mortgages by at least 90 days or are in foreclosure, accounting for roughly 8% of all mortgages. Housing analysts say the loss of income is the primary reason why borrowers are in danger of losing their homes. Those behind the program counter that the help will be significant for some. "If you are one of those 30,000 people, I think you should be very excited to get this help," says a NeighborWorks America spokesman.
The program started last week and will take applications through July 22. Many experts say it's still too early to say it will be successful, and so far federal assistance programs haven't impacted a significant number of borrowers. The government's Home Affordable Modification Program, which started in 2009 and was projected to help up to 4 million homeowners lower their mortgage payments has so far only permanently helped around 700,000 homeowners. To be eligible, homeowners must have lost income and be at risk of foreclosure due to involuntary job loss, underemployment or a medical or other economic condition; details on the application process are available online through
For the roughly four million homeowners who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments, the federal government is offering yet another remedy: free money to catch up on their loans.
The effort, called the Emergency Homeowners Loan Program, is the latest in the federal government's efforts to slow down the flood of foreclosures a necessary step to a meaningful recovery in the housing market, says a Department of Housing and Urban Development official. For people who have lost their jobs, the $1 billion program offers loans of up to $50,000 that don't actually need to be repaid, if applicants meet certain requirements.
The goal, says HUD, is to offer short-term aid to people who look like they'll be back on their feet soon. But critics say the loans may leave homeowners worse off in the long run. "This is a short run band-aid, a modest attempt to grapple with the severity of the situation," says Stuart Gabriel, director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Rolled out by HUD and the nonprofit housing advocacy group NeighborWorks America, the program is making loans with far better terms than anything on offer at a local bank. The loans are interest-free. Payments go directly to the lender for a portion of the borrower's monthly mortgage, including missed payments or past due charges. And when the assistance period -- which runs for up to two years -- ends, 20% of the loan is forgiven with each passing year. In other words, for qualified borrowers who stay in their home for at least five years after the assistance period and who don't fall behind on their mortgage again, this money doesn't have to be paid back.
But some critics say that's where help for consumers ends. By taking this loan, borrowers risk falling further into debt. If they sell their home before the entire loan is forgiven, they'll be on the hook for the remaining amount. The same holds true if they fall behind on their mortgage payments again: they'll need to repay the remaining balance of the loan when they sell or refinance their home. Separately, borrowers aren't required to have equity in their home to receive this money, so someone who has to repay this loan risks owing more on the home later than they do now. For homeowners who are significantly underwater now, the loan may only delay foreclosure, says Gabriel. While the limit each person will get is up to $50,000, loans will average about $35,000 per person, according to NeighborWorks America.
Others say the program doesn't go far enough. The loans will be made available to around 30,000 applicants -- "a drop in the bucket," says Stu Feldstein, president at SMR Research, a housing and mortgage research firm. It's helpful, he says, but it won't be enough to seriously boost the ailing housing market. Roughly 4 to 4.5 million borrowers are behind on their mortgages by at least 90 days or are in foreclosure, accounting for roughly 8% of all mortgages. Housing analysts say the loss of income is the primary reason why borrowers are in danger of losing their homes. Those behind the program counter that the help will be significant for some. "If you are one of those 30,000 people, I think you should be very excited to get this help," says a NeighborWorks America spokesman.
The program started last week and will take applications through July 22. Many experts say it's still too early to say it will be successful, and so far federal assistance programs haven't impacted a significant number of borrowers. The government's Home Affordable Modification Program, which started in 2009 and was projected to help up to 4 million homeowners lower their mortgage payments has so far only permanently helped around 700,000 homeowners. To be eligible, homeowners must have lost income and be at risk of foreclosure due to involuntary job loss, underemployment or a medical or other economic condition; details on the application process are available online through
Saturday, July 9, 2011
The Next Big Boom Towns in the U.S
What cities are best positioned to grow and prosper in the coming decade?
To determine the next boom towns in the U.S., Forbes, with the help of Mark Schill at the Praxis Strategy Group, took the 52 largest metro areas in the country (those with populations exceeding 1 million) and ranked them based on various data indicating past, present and future vitality.
We started with job growth, not only looking at performance over the past decade but also focusing on growth in the past two years, to account for the possible long-term effects of the Great Recession. That accounted for roughly one-third of the score. The other two-thirds were made up of a a broad range of demographic factors, all weighted equally. These included rates of family formation (percentage growth in children 5-17), growth in educated migration, population growth and, finally, a broad measurement of attractiveness to immigrants -- as places to settle, make money and start businesses.
We focused on these demographic factors because college-educated migrants (who also tend to be under 30), new families and immigrants will be critical in shaping the future. Areas that are rapidly losing young families and low rates of migration among educated migrants are the American equivalents of rapidly aging countries like Japan; those with more sprightly demographics are akin to up and coming countries such as Vietnam.
Many of our top performers are not surprising. No. 1 Austin, Texas, and No. 2 Raleigh, N.C., have it all demographically: high rates of immigration and migration of educated workers and healthy increases in population and number of children. They are also economic superstars, with job-creation records among the best in the nation.
Perhaps less expected is the No. 3 ranking for Nashville, Tenn. The country music capital, with its low housing prices and pro-business environment, has experienced rapid growth in educated migrants, where it ranks an impressive fourth in terms of percentage growth. New ethnic groups, such as Latinos and Asians, have doubled in size over the past decade.
Two advantages Nashville and other rising Southern cities like No. 8 Charlotte, N.C., possess are a mild climate and smaller scale. Even with population growth, they do not suffer the persistent transportation bottlenecks that strangle the older growth hubs. At the same time, these cities are building the infrastructure -- roads, cultural institutions and airports -- critical to future growth. Charlotte's bustling airport may never be as big as Atlanta's Hartsfield, but it serves both major national and international routes.
Of course, Texas metropolitan areas feature prominently on our list of future boom towns, including No. 4 San Antonio, No. 5 Houston and No. 7 Dallas, which over the past years boasted the biggest jump in new jobs, over 83,000. Aided by relatively low housing prices and buoyant economies, these Lone Star cities have become major hubs for jobs and families.
And there's more growth to come. With its strategically located airport, Dallas is emerging as the ideal place for corporate relocations. And Houston, with its burgeoning port and dominance of the world energy business, seems destined to become ever more influential in the coming decade. Both cities have emerged as major immigrant hubs, attracting on newcomers at a rate far higher than old immigrant hubs like Chicago, Boston and Seattle.
The three other regions in our top 10 represent radically different kinds of places. The Washington, D.C., area (No. 6) sprawls from the District of Columbia through parts of Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia. Its great competitive advantage lies in proximity to the federal government, which has helped it enjoy an almost shockingly "good recession," with continuing job growth, including in high-wage science- and technology-related fields, and an improving real estate market.
Our other two top ten, No. 9 Phoenix, Ariz., and No. 10 Orlando, Fla., have not done well in the recession, but both still have more jobs now than in 2000. Their demographics remain surprisingly robust. Despite some anti-immigrant agitation by local politicians, immigrants still seem to be flocking to both of these states. Known better as retirement havens, their ranks of children and families have surged over the past decade. Warm weather, pro-business environments and, most critically, a large supply of affordable housing should allow these regions to grow, if not in the overheated fashion of the past, at rates both steadier and more sustainable.
Sadly, several of the nation's premier economic regions sit toward the bottom of the list, notably former boom town Los Angeles (No. 47). Los Angeles' once huge and vibrant industrial sector has shrunk rapidly, in large part the consequence of ever-tightening regulatory burdens. Its once magnetic appeal to educated migrants faded and families are fleeing from persistently high housing prices, poor educational choices and weak employment opportunities. Los Angeles lost over 180,000 children 5 to 17, the largest such drop in the nation.
Many of L.A.'s traditional rivals -- such as Chicago (with which is tied at No. 47), New York City (No. 35) and San Francisco (No. 42) -- also did poorly on our prospective list. To be sure, they will continue to reap the benefits of existing resources -- financial institutions, universities and the presence of leading companies -- but their future prospects will be limited by their generally sluggish job creation and aging demographics.
Of course, even the most exhaustive research cannot fully predict the future. A significant downsizing of the federal government, for example, would slow the D.C. region's growth. A big fall in energy prices, or tough restrictions of carbon emissions, could hit the Texas cities, particularly Houston, hard. If housing prices stabilize in the Northeast or West Coast, less people will flock to places like Phoenix, Orlando or even Indianapolis (No. 11), Salt Lake City (No. 12) and Columbus (No. 13). One or more of our now lower ranked locales, like Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York, might also decide to reform in order to become more attractive to small businesses and middle class families.
What is clear is that well-established patterns of job creation and vital demographics will drive future regional growth, not only in the next year, but over the coming decade. People create economies and they tend to vote with their feet when they choose to locate their families as well as their businesses. This will prove more decisive in shaping future growth than the hip imagery and big city-oriented PR flackery that dominate media coverage of America's changing regions.
The Next Big Boom Towns in the U.S.
No. 1: Austin, Texas
This is no surprise. Austin consistently sits atop Forbes' annual list of the best cities for jobs and scores highly in other demographics rankings. It is the third-fastest-growing city in the nation, attracting large numbers of college grads, immigrants and families with young children.
No. 2: Raleigh, N.C.
Raleigh has experienced the second-highest overall population increase and the third-highest job growth over the past two decades in the U.S. It also ranked among those regions seeing the biggest jump in new immigrants and is the No. 1 city for families with young children. The area is a magnet for technology companies fleeing the more expensive, congested and highly regulated northeast corridor. Affordable housing and short commute times are no doubt highly attractive to recent college graduates and millennials looking to start families.
No. 3: Nashville, Tenn.
The country music capital, with its low housing prices and pro-business environment, has experienced rapid growth in educated migrants, where it ranks an impressive fourth in terms of percentage growth. New ethnic groups, such as Latinos and Asians, have doubled in size over the past decade. A high quality of life, a vibrant cultural and music scene and a diverse population also make Nashville a desirable place to live.
No. 4: San Antonio, Texas
Like its other Texas neighbors, San Antonio boasts soaring population rates as well as a good job market and booming industry. One key factor in San Antonio's favor: stable house prices -- even by Texas standards. PMI Mortgage Insurance's most recent risk index, which is a two-year measure, lists San Antonio as having the lowest risk from falling prices among large Texas cities.
No. 5: Houston, Texas
Low housing prices, a stable job market and a vibrant immigrant community has helped Houston emerge as future boomtown. And with its burgeoning port and dominance of the world energy business, the area seems destined to become even more influential in the coming decade.
To determine the next boom towns in the U.S., Forbes, with the help of Mark Schill at the Praxis Strategy Group, took the 52 largest metro areas in the country (those with populations exceeding 1 million) and ranked them based on various data indicating past, present and future vitality.
We started with job growth, not only looking at performance over the past decade but also focusing on growth in the past two years, to account for the possible long-term effects of the Great Recession. That accounted for roughly one-third of the score. The other two-thirds were made up of a a broad range of demographic factors, all weighted equally. These included rates of family formation (percentage growth in children 5-17), growth in educated migration, population growth and, finally, a broad measurement of attractiveness to immigrants -- as places to settle, make money and start businesses.
We focused on these demographic factors because college-educated migrants (who also tend to be under 30), new families and immigrants will be critical in shaping the future. Areas that are rapidly losing young families and low rates of migration among educated migrants are the American equivalents of rapidly aging countries like Japan; those with more sprightly demographics are akin to up and coming countries such as Vietnam.
Many of our top performers are not surprising. No. 1 Austin, Texas, and No. 2 Raleigh, N.C., have it all demographically: high rates of immigration and migration of educated workers and healthy increases in population and number of children. They are also economic superstars, with job-creation records among the best in the nation.
Perhaps less expected is the No. 3 ranking for Nashville, Tenn. The country music capital, with its low housing prices and pro-business environment, has experienced rapid growth in educated migrants, where it ranks an impressive fourth in terms of percentage growth. New ethnic groups, such as Latinos and Asians, have doubled in size over the past decade.
Two advantages Nashville and other rising Southern cities like No. 8 Charlotte, N.C., possess are a mild climate and smaller scale. Even with population growth, they do not suffer the persistent transportation bottlenecks that strangle the older growth hubs. At the same time, these cities are building the infrastructure -- roads, cultural institutions and airports -- critical to future growth. Charlotte's bustling airport may never be as big as Atlanta's Hartsfield, but it serves both major national and international routes.
Of course, Texas metropolitan areas feature prominently on our list of future boom towns, including No. 4 San Antonio, No. 5 Houston and No. 7 Dallas, which over the past years boasted the biggest jump in new jobs, over 83,000. Aided by relatively low housing prices and buoyant economies, these Lone Star cities have become major hubs for jobs and families.
And there's more growth to come. With its strategically located airport, Dallas is emerging as the ideal place for corporate relocations. And Houston, with its burgeoning port and dominance of the world energy business, seems destined to become ever more influential in the coming decade. Both cities have emerged as major immigrant hubs, attracting on newcomers at a rate far higher than old immigrant hubs like Chicago, Boston and Seattle.
The three other regions in our top 10 represent radically different kinds of places. The Washington, D.C., area (No. 6) sprawls from the District of Columbia through parts of Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia. Its great competitive advantage lies in proximity to the federal government, which has helped it enjoy an almost shockingly "good recession," with continuing job growth, including in high-wage science- and technology-related fields, and an improving real estate market.
Our other two top ten, No. 9 Phoenix, Ariz., and No. 10 Orlando, Fla., have not done well in the recession, but both still have more jobs now than in 2000. Their demographics remain surprisingly robust. Despite some anti-immigrant agitation by local politicians, immigrants still seem to be flocking to both of these states. Known better as retirement havens, their ranks of children and families have surged over the past decade. Warm weather, pro-business environments and, most critically, a large supply of affordable housing should allow these regions to grow, if not in the overheated fashion of the past, at rates both steadier and more sustainable.
Sadly, several of the nation's premier economic regions sit toward the bottom of the list, notably former boom town Los Angeles (No. 47). Los Angeles' once huge and vibrant industrial sector has shrunk rapidly, in large part the consequence of ever-tightening regulatory burdens. Its once magnetic appeal to educated migrants faded and families are fleeing from persistently high housing prices, poor educational choices and weak employment opportunities. Los Angeles lost over 180,000 children 5 to 17, the largest such drop in the nation.
Many of L.A.'s traditional rivals -- such as Chicago (with which is tied at No. 47), New York City (No. 35) and San Francisco (No. 42) -- also did poorly on our prospective list. To be sure, they will continue to reap the benefits of existing resources -- financial institutions, universities and the presence of leading companies -- but their future prospects will be limited by their generally sluggish job creation and aging demographics.
Of course, even the most exhaustive research cannot fully predict the future. A significant downsizing of the federal government, for example, would slow the D.C. region's growth. A big fall in energy prices, or tough restrictions of carbon emissions, could hit the Texas cities, particularly Houston, hard. If housing prices stabilize in the Northeast or West Coast, less people will flock to places like Phoenix, Orlando or even Indianapolis (No. 11), Salt Lake City (No. 12) and Columbus (No. 13). One or more of our now lower ranked locales, like Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York, might also decide to reform in order to become more attractive to small businesses and middle class families.
What is clear is that well-established patterns of job creation and vital demographics will drive future regional growth, not only in the next year, but over the coming decade. People create economies and they tend to vote with their feet when they choose to locate their families as well as their businesses. This will prove more decisive in shaping future growth than the hip imagery and big city-oriented PR flackery that dominate media coverage of America's changing regions.
The Next Big Boom Towns in the U.S.
 ©Forbes Images |
This is no surprise. Austin consistently sits atop Forbes' annual list of the best cities for jobs and scores highly in other demographics rankings. It is the third-fastest-growing city in the nation, attracting large numbers of college grads, immigrants and families with young children.
 ©Forbes Images |
Raleigh has experienced the second-highest overall population increase and the third-highest job growth over the past two decades in the U.S. It also ranked among those regions seeing the biggest jump in new immigrants and is the No. 1 city for families with young children. The area is a magnet for technology companies fleeing the more expensive, congested and highly regulated northeast corridor. Affordable housing and short commute times are no doubt highly attractive to recent college graduates and millennials looking to start families.
 ©Forbes Images |
The country music capital, with its low housing prices and pro-business environment, has experienced rapid growth in educated migrants, where it ranks an impressive fourth in terms of percentage growth. New ethnic groups, such as Latinos and Asians, have doubled in size over the past decade. A high quality of life, a vibrant cultural and music scene and a diverse population also make Nashville a desirable place to live.
 ©Forbes Images |
Like its other Texas neighbors, San Antonio boasts soaring population rates as well as a good job market and booming industry. One key factor in San Antonio's favor: stable house prices -- even by Texas standards. PMI Mortgage Insurance's most recent risk index, which is a two-year measure, lists San Antonio as having the lowest risk from falling prices among large Texas cities.
 ©Forbes Images |
Low housing prices, a stable job market and a vibrant immigrant community has helped Houston emerge as future boomtown. And with its burgeoning port and dominance of the world energy business, the area seems destined to become even more influential in the coming decade.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Job outlook rises as reports suggest more hiring
WASHINGTON (AP) -- June may turn out to have been a good month to find a job after all.
A private report said businesses hired twice as many workers as economists had expected. Applications for unemployment benefits have reached a seven-week low. And more small businesses say they plan to increase hiring in the next three months, a trade association said.
The brighter outlook for jobs emerged one day before the government will issue the June employment report, regarded as the most reliable gauge of job creation.
The three reports suggested that the overall economy may also be starting to strengthen now that gas prices have begun to decline and supply disruptions stemming from Japan's crises have started to ease.
Economists responded to the latest data by raising their forecasts for hiring in June. Many now estimate that employers added at least 120,000 jobs. Some are predicting as many as 200,000 net new jobs for June.
That's well above the consensus forecast for 90,000, based on a survey of economists by FactSet. And it could signal that weak hiring in May was a setback caused by temporary factors.
"The end of job growth may have been reported prematurely," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.
The outlook brightened Thursday morning after payroll processor ADP said the private sector added 157,000 jobs last month. That was more than double the number economists had forecast. And it was much higher than the 36,000 jobs that ADP said employers had added in May.
Stocks rose after the report was released. The Dow Jones industrial average gained more than 118 points in afternoon trading.
Many economists said the ADP report was the reason they revised up their forecasts for the government's jobs report to be issued Friday.
Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, raised his projection for net job gains in June from 100,000 to 140,000. Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, boosted his forecast from 100,000 to 175,000.
"We always took the view that May was hit by one-time factors like severe weather and supply-chain disruptions, but this report suggests those factors were more significant than we thought," Shepherdson said.
In May, employers added only 54,000 jobs, far fewer than the average gain of 220,000 in the previous three months. The unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent from 9 percent in April.
Among the evidence Thursday that the economy might be starting to pick up after a sluggish first half of the year:
-- Retailers posted strong sales in June, boosted by widespread discounts. Target Corp., Costco Wholesale Corp. and Limited Brands Inc. all exceeded Wall Street estimates. The International Council of Shopping Centers said retailers collectively enjoyed their best June in 12 years, based on a tally of 28 store chains. The figures are based on revenue at stores open at least a year.
-- The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 418,000 last week, the Labor Department said. That's the lowest level in nearly two months. Still, applications have topped 400,000 for 13 weeks, evidence that the job market has weakened since the year began.
-- Small businesses say they're more likely to boost hiring in the next three months, according to a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business. In May, more companies said they planned to cut jobs.
And 15 percent of small companies say they have unfilled job openings, the NFIB said, up from 12 percent the previous month.
Gas prices have fallen sharply since peaking in early May at a national average of nearly $4 per gallon. Prices averaged $3.58 a gallon nationwide on Thursday, according to AAA.
And manufacturing activity expanded in June at a faster pace than the previous month, according to the Institute for Supply Management. That suggests the parts shortage caused by the March 11 earthquake in Japan is beginning to abate.
Those factors "are pretty much behind us, so unless we have something else unexpected, I think we'll be in good shape" in the second half of this year, said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re.
The government said last month that the economy grew only 1.9 percent in the January-March quarter. Analysts are expecting similarly weak growth in April-June quarter.
The economy will grow at a 3.2 percent pace in final six months of the year, according to an Associated Press survey of 38 economists.
Still, growth must be stronger to significantly lower the unemployment rate. The economy would need to grow 5 percent for a whole year to significantly bring down the unemployment rate. Economic growth of just 3 percent a year would hold the unemployment steady and keep up with population growth.
AP Retail Writer Anne D'Innocenzio contributed to this report.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)